The Week Ahead

So, last week was a relatively light one in terms of economic news.   This week will be a bit heavier…

• Tuesday – The Housing Market Index, Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization.
• Wednesday – Housing Starts and Architecture Billings Index for CRE (Commercial Real Estate), the Fed’s meeting announcement, CPI (Consumer Price Index)
• Thursday – The Philly Fed Index

So what do they mean and what impact will they have?

First – Anyone who tells you they know is lying.

Secondly, here’s what I think is going to happen..

• All of the reports except the Fed are going to come in lukewarm.   Those with positive outlooks on things will be able to find something to be happy about.   Those with realistic pessimistic outlooks on things will find things that they can point to in order to say that things aren’t going well.
• The Fed will issue their report and talk about how good they think the economy is looking.   The markets won’t believe them.
• We’re going to end up with a very volatile ride this week, but by the end of the week, there won’t be anything that has a substantial impact on mortgage rates.

Therefore, my prediction for the week is that we’ll see a LOT of interest rate volatility but it will be mainly noise and we won’t see any substantial movement either up or down.

Let’s see at the end of the week whether I was able to predict the market any better than the weather people in Michigan can predict the weather!

Tom Vanderwell