Munchin’ on the Numbers – by Max Whitmore
12-18-09
MUNCHIN’ ON THE NUMBERS
I must tell you that this holiday trading activity is not like I have often seen on the past. Usually when the big guys go on holiday, the markets are very, very thin (low volume) and trading ranges very low. Not so this time. Don’t ask me if it because the FOMC hit during the holiday, or the health bill overhangs the market, or whatever. Because after looking at all I could think of, a good explanation for this one just eludes me. Understand that does not happen very often after 40+ years in this business.
But, be that as it may, let’s just look at the charts for a moment to see what they are telling us. The S&P pulled down to the Headline (see my Monday Weekly report for a good look at this), but, at the close, it did hold right on it. A quick look at the Momentum section shows the green line (fast stochastic) rolled down and may be telling us it will try to get back to the “neutral ” area (between 40-60) before we will see any attempt at further rally next week. Bottom line – need to watch closely, but S&P is holding its own in spite of the late Wed. and all Thur. assault to sell by the bears. Good news.
Bonds clearly fell off today, as the rush to a “safe haven” slowed and even reversed, as bonds fell by -23 ticks. I would, as I said yesterday, look for them to moderate bit more, but to hold in this 117-119 area until we see more sound evidence of the Fed thinking seriously about tightening rates. They said Wed. that that was still not in the cards for an “extended” period.
Across the board all other key indices were up, dollar, oil, gold, NASDAQ, and the S&P. But remember, this is still a holiday market, albeit a bit strange with such large volumes, sharp moves (when they hit)and general weakness in the stocks, particularly. Usually stocks tend to rally in this key holiday period. Charts are all just about where we started the week when you look at the finish tonight, except for a rise in the dollar and the drop in gold. These two fade one another, so if one moves up, the other generally moves down.
Really not much more to say today on the charts, so let me tell you what the day was like and we will just go on to next Monday, a shortened week because of Christmas and likely one that will be very much like this one. The reason most will give for the market holding its own today was a rally in the Tech sector, fueled by good earnings numbers. Some will say it was the selloff in bonds, as “haven” fears subsided. Some will attribute it all to the overall NASDAQ performance (really fueled by the aforementioned Tech sector). And finally some will say that The Iran-Iraq oil field dispute started a rush on dollars and held the markets back. My take is that it was a very quiet newsday and most of the “powers that be” were on vacation and not much really happened. So, in spite of all the reasons put forward, to me, this was just a non-day, pretty much.
I will have a more detailed summary of the week in the Monday Weekly Report, so do take the time to study it when it is posted Monday – usually by noon, give or take an hour.
So, until Monday, as always, I do hope your trading day was a profitable one. Will be back here Monday, the Good Lord willin’ and the creek don’t rise.
NEED SOMETHING TO TALK ABOUT TONIGHT?
SIX MAJOR IMPACTS ON THE MARKET TODAY
1. Iran took possession of some oil fields it claims it owns. Iraq says no, it’s theirs. Tensions grow.
2. Oil gains as supply falls and demand grows a bit. The sheik woke up on the wrong side this AM.
3. Tech stocks rally as good earnings hit the street. Oracle and RIM make analysts and investors happy.
4. N. Korea executes 12 for resistance to devaluing. Everybody there now equal, all worth $200. Oh, my.
5. Saab bites the dust after leaving many in it over the last 75 years. Sad day for the Swedish car buffs.
6. Georgia bank is 134th to fail in 2009. What will 2010 bring is the big questions on FDIC’s mind tonight.
Scariest is the N. Korean executions because the Govt. stole everyone’s savings and gave all just $200 back. Now everybody is equal say the government. The utopia of socialism is seems. UGH! Was sad about Saab, but many names gone that 10 years ago were vibrant car makers. And Iran want a foreign threat to distract its population – Iraq fills the bill to a “T.” Iran steals some oil fields to get the fight going. Oh. My.
DAILY CHANGES WEEKLY
Closes as of Fri. 12-18-09 CHANGE (cash) KEYLINE# ABV/BLW
DOW INDU. 10,328.89 +20.63 points 9,844.62 ABV +484.27
DOW DAILY PRICE RANGE 98.65 points
S&P 1,102.47 +6.39points 1,059.44 ABV +43.03
S&P DAILY PRICE RANGE 10.0 points
30 YR BONDS 118 8/32 -23 points 116 27/32 ABV + 1 13/32
EOD YIELDS 90 DAY 0.75% 10 YR. 3.54% 30 YR. 4.512%
NASDAQ 2,211.69 +31.64 points 2085.21 ABV +126.48
GOLD $1,112.60 +$16.31 $924.15 ABV $188.45
OIL $77.75 +$.22 $84.67 BLW $6.92
DOLLAR INDEX 77.75 +$3.50 79.94 BLW 2.19
COPPER $3.1425 -$.0225 $2.6409 ABV +.5016
Note: All closes at 4pm using continuous cash contract results
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